兴安盟岭南地区干燥度指数变化特征及影响因素研究

doi:10.12190/j.issn.2096-1197.2020.06.18

Abstract

Abstract: 【Objective】To clarify the inter-annual variation characteristics of the dryness index in Southern Daxing′Anling Mountains in Hinggan League and its main meteorological influence factors,so as to accurately estimate the future local drought trend,and then guide agricultural production and agricultural water saving.【Methods】Using methods of anomaly analysis and stepwise regression analysis to evaluate the effects of 6 meteorological elements from 1973 to 2018(daily average maximum temperature,daily average minimum temperature,daily average relative humidity,daily average wind speed,daily average sunshine hours,precipitation)on the dryness index,and the change of dryness index on different time scales was also analyzed.【Results】The annual dryness index in Southern Daxing′Anling Mountains in Hinggan League was 1.80-7.02,and the multi-year average was 3.50;the maximum value of the dryness index was 7.02 in 2004,the second one was 5.69 in 2001,the minimum value was 1.80 in 1998,and the second smallest value appeared in 1991,which was 1.97. Through anomaly analysis,the climate tendency rate increased by 0.1 per 10 years(P<0.01),and the climate showed a dry trend. In the stepwise regression analysis of each climatic factor on the dryness index,the absolute values of the direct path coefficients of daily minimum temperature,average relative humidity,average wind speed and precipitation constitute were in the order of precipitation>average relative humidity>average wind speed>daily minimum temperature. The total contribution of the reliability of the dryness index estimated by the regression equation reached 86.31%.【Conclusion】A trend of overall drying from 1973 to 2018 in Southern Daxing′Anling Mountains in Hinggan League,the dryness index was the most sensitive to average wind speed,and the average wind speed decreased was the main meteorological factor causing the change of the dryness index in Southern Daxing′Anling Mountains in Hinggan League.

Key words: Dryness index, Meteorological factors, Climate change, Regression analysis, Path analysis

CLC Number:

S275.3

YIN Chunyan, ZHAO Ju, QI Yinglong, LI Bin, ZHANY Yu, LIU Hu, LIU Xiaoyu. Study on the variation characteristics and influencing factors of dryness index in Southern Daxing′Anling Mountains in Hinggan League[J].Journal of Northern Agriculture, 2020, 48(6): 108-113.

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URL: https://journal30.magtechjournal.com/bfnyxb/EN/10.12190/j.issn.2096-1197.2020.06.18

https://journal30.magtechjournal.com/bfnyxb/EN/Y2020/V48/I6/108

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Study on the variation characteristics and influencing factors of dryness index in Southern Daxing′Anling Mountains in Hinggan League

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