Journal of Northern Agriculture ›› 2025, Vol. 53 ›› Issue (6): 66-76.doi: 10.12190/j.issn.2096-1197.2025.06.06

• Plant protection·Horticulture • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Prediction of suitable habitat for the population of the rare and endangered plant Changnienia amoena based on the MaxEnt model

CHEN Jie1,2, WANG Shibao1,2, HE Zhipeng3, WANG Yanlong4, FANG Yu1,2, ZHANG Hui1,2, ZHANG Yanyan1,2, YANG Jie1,2, LI Xia4, CUI Yanli5   

  1. 1. School of Pharmacy, Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College, Hanzhong 723000, China;
    2. Institute of Pharmaceutical(Edible) Botany, Qinba Mountains, Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College, Hanzhong 723000, China;
    3. School of Pharmacy, Shaanxi Institute of International Trade & Commerce, Xi′ an 712046, China;
    4. College of Agriculture, Forestry Technology and Bioengineering, Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College, Hanzhong 723000, China;
    5. Department of Basic Courses Teaching, Hanzhong Vocational and Technical College, Hanzhong 723000, China
  • Received:2025-04-08 Revised:2025-11-11 Published:2026-01-26

Abstract: 【Objective】 To identify the suitable habitat distribution of Changnienia amoena and provide a reference for the conservation of its wild resources.【Methods】 Occurrence data and climatic factor data of C. amoena were collected. Based on the Maximum Entropy model(MaxEnt v3.4.4)and Geographic Information System software(ArcGIS 10.8),the major climatic factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of C. amoena were identified,the suitable habitats were classified,and the area of suitable habitats in the current period(1970—2000) and three future periods(2050s,2070s,2090s)under two scenarios(SSP126 and SSP585)was calculated. In addition,the centroid migration of the suitable habitats was predicted.【Results】 The major climatic factors affecting the suitable habitat distribution of C. amoena included precipitation of the warmest quarter,temperature seasonality,minimum temperature of the coldest month,mean diurnal temperature range,precipitation of the coldest quarter,precipitation of the wettest quarter,and mean temperature of the wettest region. In the current period,the total suitable habitat area of C. amoena was 2 344 356.93 km2,accounting for 24.42% of total national land area. Among these,highly suitable habitats covered 827 705.50 km2(8.62% of the total national land area),mainly distributed in Sichuan,Chongqing,Hubei,Hunan,Anhui,Jiangsu,Jiangxi,Henan,and Guizhou Provinces and other regions. Moderately suitable habitat area and lowly suitable habitat area were 810 189.77 km2 and 706 461.66 km2,accounting for 8.44% and 7.36% of the total national land area,respectively. In the future periods,under the SSP126 scenario,the total suitable habitat areas of C. amoena in the 2050s,2070s and 2090s were 2 499 091.89,2 499 967.87,and 2 549 461.27 km2,accounting for 26.03%,26.04%,and 26.56% of the total national land area,respectively. Under the SSP585 scenario,the total suitable habitat areas of C. amoena were 2 575 705.90,2 880 322.37,and 3 188 653.02 km2,accounting for 26.84%,30.01%and 33.22% of the total national land area,respectively. Under the SSP126 scenario,the centroid of C. amoena first shifted northward by 124.76 km from the current period to the 2050s,then southward by 41.03 km in the 2070s,and finally northward again by 27.43 km in the 2090s. Under the SSP585 scenario,the centroid of C. amoena first shifted northward by 167.38 km from the current period to the 2050s,northwestward by 148.47 km in the 2070s,and finally northward by 30.92 km in the 2090s.【Conclusion】 Overall,the total suitable habitat area for C. amoena is expected to expand in the future,with its centroid migrating northward.

Key words: Changnienia amoena, MaxEnt model, Climatic factors, Suitable habitat distribution

CLC Number: 

  • S682.31