Abstract:

【Objective】 To explore the influencing factors and mechanisms of chemical fertilizer application in China，and to ensure the green and high-quality development of agriculture.【Methods】Based on the relevant data of the national chemical fertilizer and planting structure from 2000 to 2020，the driving variables for chemical fertilizer application were broken down，and the impact of each component on chemical fertilizer application was calculated. Using the panel data of 27 Chinese provinces（except Beijing，Tianjin，Shanghai，Tibet，Hong Kong，Macao and Taiwan）from 2009 to 2020，an econometric model was built，control relevant variables to analyze the influence of economic development level，planting structure，industrial structure and technical factors on chemical fertilizer application rate. The robustness of the regression results and the cross effects among the factors were verified.【Results】The main driving factor for the decline of chemical fertilizer application in China was planting structure. The impact of fertilizer intensity on chemical fertilizer application rate has been noticeably reduced since the implementation of the chemical fertilizer zero growth action. Economic development level and industrial structure promoted chemical fertilizer application，while technical factors and planting structure inhibited chemical fertilizer application. After taking into account any potential endogenous issues，the regression results remained stable，and there was clear complementarity and substitution between technical factors and other factors.【Conclusion】Chemical fertilizer application rate could be further reduced by improving industrial and planting structures as well as agricultural technologies.

Key words: Chemical fertilizer application rate, LDMI model, Influencing factors, Cross effect