北方农业学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (3): 132-132.

• • 上一篇    

鄂温克族自治旗羊草返青期预报模型

张荣菊 李志梅   

  1. 内蒙古鄂温克族自治旗气象局,内蒙古鄂温克旗021100
  • 出版日期:2015-06-20 发布日期:2015-06-20
  • 通讯作者: 张荣菊

Forecast model for returning green stage of Leymus chinensis in Ewenke Autonomous County

ZHANG Rongju,LI Zhimei (Meteorological Bureau of Ewenke Autonomous County of Inner Mongolia,Ewenke 021100,China)   

  • Online:2015-06-20 Published:2015-06-20

摘要: 为了建立鄂温克族自治旗羊草返青期预报模型,首先对该旗30年的4月18日和4月28日20~30cm土层土壤相对湿度、近22年羊草返青日期及牧草返青日数、各月温度进行了统计分析。结果表明,20~30cm土层土壤相对湿度及牧草返青日数不是影响牧草返青的主要因素,而温度是影响羊草返青的主要因素。在此基础上,根据羊草返青期与3-5月、3-4月均温之间的相关关系,建立了鄂温克族自治旗羊草返青期预报模型:Y=-2.34×T3-5+123.38,Y=-1.79×T3-4+113.41。建立的模型可为及时、准确地开展天然草场牧草返青期预报工作提供理论依据。

Abstract: In order establish forecast model for returning green stage of Leymus chinensis in Ewenke Autonomous County,the relative soil moisture of soil layer in depth of 20-30cm of April 18th and 28th of the recent 30 years,returning green date and returning green days of Leymus chinensis in recent 22 years and the temperature of each month in recent 22 years were statistically analyzed.The results showed that the relative soil moisture of soil layer in depth of 20-30 cm and the returning green days of Leymus chinensis was not the main factor that influencing returning green stage Ctemperature was the main factor that influencing returning green stage.Based on the correlation between returning green date of Leymus chinensis and average temperature of Match to May and Match to April,the forecast model for returning green stage of Leymus chinensis in Ewenke Autonomous County was established as Y=-2.34×T3-5+123.38,Y=-1.79×T3-4+113.41. The established model would provide theoretical basis for the timely and accurate forecast of returning green stage of natural pasture forage.

中图分类号: 

  • S812.1