北方农业学报 ›› 2016, Vol. 44 ›› Issue (5): 93-93.

• 研究报告 • 上一篇    下一篇

内蒙古西部温室大棚温度变化分析与预报

张超   

  1. 内蒙古生态与农业气象中心,内蒙古呼和浩特010051
  • 出版日期:2016-10-20 发布日期:2016-10-20
  • 通讯作者: 张超
  • 作者简介:张超(1984-),女,工程师,硕士,主要从事农业气象研究工作。

Variation analysis and forecast of temperature inside greenhouse in western of Inner Mongolia

ZHANG Chao (Inner Mongolia Ecological and Agricultural Meteorological Center,Hohhot 010051,China)   

  • Online:2016-10-20 Published:2016-10-20

摘要: 为了深入了解内蒙古西部地区温室大棚温度变化特点,建立棚内温度预报模型,文章使用阿拉善盟巴润别立镇2013年1—4月逐日逐小时温棚内外气温对比观测资料,定量分析温棚内气温日变化特征,建立温度预报模型,结果认为,7:00~9:00时棚内出现最低气温6.4~10.9℃,之后2~3 h升温最显著,达8.6℃/h左右,14:00~15:00时达到棚内最高气温36.3~41.6℃,之后降温5.4℃/h左右,19:00时之后夜间温度变化平缓;有气温观测条件的大棚可根据温度拟合方程计算任意时次棚内温度;逐步回归的方法建立棚内平均气温、最高最低气温的预报模型,可以有效地利用气象部门3~7 d预报结果,为农业生产服务。预报模型有较好的显著度,可用于预测棚内温度变化,对于提高农业气象服务水平、增强防灾减灾和相应的决策能力有重要作用。

Abstract: In order to realize the characteristics of temperature change in west of Inner Mongolia's greenhouse and build the greenhouse temperature prediction model, using hourly temperature observation data of inside and outside the greenhouse in town of Barunbieli in Alashan between January and April in 2013 to quantitative study the diurnal variation of temperature inside the greenhouse, then prediction model was established. The conclusion as following. First,the lowest temperature appears in 7:00 to 9:00 AM which is 6.4 ~10.9 ℃ and then fast rise 8.6 ℃ /h after 2 to 3 hour. The highest temperature appears in 14 to 15 PM which is 36.3~41.6 ℃ and then quickly fall 5.4 ℃/h. The temperature will change slowly after 19:00PM. Second, the greenhouses which have the conditions to know the real-time temperature can use the temperature fitting equation to calculate future temperature of each hour. Third, the method of regression analysis to established prediction model which including maximum temperature, minimum temperature and average temperature which can make good use of the temperature prediction results of next 3 to 7 days for farmers. Model has good degrees which can be used to predict relative changes of temperature. These results can provide theoretical basis for the development and utilization of the greenhouse climate resources and promote the development of agricultural facilities.

中图分类号: 

  • S625