北方农业学报 ›› 2018, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (4): 95-95.

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畜牧业雪灾综合风险预测研究

哈斯塔木嘎   

  1. 锡林郭勒盟气象局,内蒙古锡林浩特026000
  • 出版日期:2018-08-20 发布日期:2018-08-20
  • 通讯作者: 哈斯塔木嘎
  • 作者简介:哈斯塔木嘎(1983-),男(蒙古族),工程师,硕士,主要从事应用气象、数值预报的研究工作。
  • 基金资助:
    内蒙古气象局青年基金项目(nmqnqx201707)

Research on the comprehensive prediction of snow disaster risking in animal husbandry

Hasitamuga (Xilingol Meteorological Bureau,Xilinhot 026000,China)   

  • Online:2018-08-20 Published:2018-08-20

摘要: 利用格点气象要素预报、NDSI指数、DEM数据和社会经济数据,依据自然灾害风险理论,构建畜牧业雪灾综合风险预测模型.使用GIS栅格计算工具计算未来一旬平均雪灾综合风险指数.结果与致灾因子分布基本吻合,实际情况基本相符.该研究使格点预报、牧业生产活动、社会经济条件等因素有机结合,结果科学性、针对性强,能有效提升气象服务效果,是牧业雪灾风险预测的积极探索.

Abstract: Based on grid meteorological predict element,NDSI index,DEM data and socio-econonffc data,the refined prediction of snow disaster risking of animal husbandPy was constructed by the theory of natural disaster risking. The GIS raster computing tool was used to calculate the average risk of snow disaster in the next ten days. The results are consistent with the distribution of disaster causing factors, and the actual situation is matching basically. However, the lack of refined industrial struetm'e data and livestock distribution data has great influence on aeem'aey, which is an important drawback that models need to solve re'gently. Tiffs study combines the factors as the grid prediction, the animal husbandry production activities and tire soeio- economic conditions. Tire results are scientific and pertinent, and can effectively improve the meteorological service efteet, it is a positive exploration of prediction of the risk of snow disaster in animal husbandry.

中图分类号: 

  • X43