关键词: 生猪, 现货价格, 期货价格, 价格发现

Abstract: [Objective] This study focuses on the functional effectiveness of China′s live hog futures market, and evaluate its price discovery efficiency and risk aversion efficacy, to provide a basis for government optimization of hog production capacity regulation and enterprise participation in market-based hedging, thereby maintaining producers′ production incentives and safeguarding consumer welfare. [Methods] Cointegration tests and vector error correction models were employed to reveal the long-term equilibrium relationship and short-term adjustment mechanisms between futures and spot prices. The information share model and permanent-transitory model were used to quantify the contributions of futures and spot markets to price discovery. An ordinary least squares （OLS） regression model and error correction model （ECM） were constructed to estimate the optimal hedging ratio and risk hedging efficiency. [Results] The findings indicate that China′s live hog futures market plays a leading role in price discovery, with a significant long-term equilibrium relationship between futures and spot prices, where short-term price deviations converge toward long-term equilibrium through the error correction mechanism. China′s live hog futures market demonstrates a certain degree of effectiveness in hedging, while also showing potential for further development as a tool for market-based management of hog price risk. [Conclusion] The study results suggest that the government can optimize threshold settings for reserve meat regulation using futures price signals, and the price discovery function of the futures market can provide forward-looking market signals for production capacity early warning mechanisms. Leading hog breeding enterprises can utilize dynamic hedging strategies to stabilize business expectations. These findings provide an empirical basis for improving China's agricultural futures market system and promoting innovation in agricultural risk management tools.

Key words: live hog, spot price, futures price, price discovery