Abstract:

[Objective] To conduct an empirical research on the development of forage industry in China using alfalfa as an example from the perspective of food security, and to provide references for resolving the contradiction between people and animals for grain, achieving the balance between supply and demand of feed grain, and guaranteeing grain security. [Method] The gray correlation method was used to empirically analyze the influencing factors of feed grain growth. The influencing factors of feed grain period-by-period growth were used as the subsequence, and the feed grain period-by-period growth was used as the parent sequence to establish an analytical model. According to the ranking of correlation degree, the major factors influencing feed grain growth were determined. [Result]The correlation degree of the period-by-period growth of total output value in animal husbandry, the period-by-period growth of main livestock products, the period-by-period growth of perennial forage planting area and the period-by-period growth of annual forage planting area with the period-by-period growth of feed grain were 0.949, 0.893, 0.858, 0.831, and 0.551, respectively. This indicated that there were strong correlation between the growth of feed grain and the total output value in animal husbandry, the main livestock products and the perennial forage planting area. Furthermore, the growth of animal husbandry and feed grain were closely related, and the development of perennial forage industry could alleviate the rising demand for feed grain in China. [Conclusion] The results obtained in this study may provide empirical support and reference for the development alfalfa forage industry and the formulation of related policies in China.

Key words: grain security, alfalfa, animal husbandry, forage industry, gray correlation method