农业碳排放的演变特征及影响因素分析

doi:10.12190/j.issn.2096-1197.2023.03.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】测算我国农业碳排放量及碳排放强度,探究其时序演变特征,分析农业碳排放的驱动因素,为实现农业绿色低碳高质量发展提供理论依据。【方法】基于2000—2020年我国29个省（自治区、直辖市）农业与能源的相关数据,结合IPCC经典碳排放测算方法,围绕农地利用、农资投入、畜禽养殖3个方面构建碳排放测算体系,并运用LMDI模型对农业碳排放的驱动因素进行分析。【结果】2000—2020年,我国农业碳排放量由27 790.0万t增至29 409.6万t,农业碳排放强度由1.329 t/万元降至0.618 t/万元;从地区上看,中部和东部是我国农业碳排放的主要地区;农业产业结构、农业劳动力规模、农业能源结构对农业碳排放量的贡献值分别为-24 284.3万、-12 048.6万、-10 240.5万t,而农业能源效率、农业经济水平的贡献值分别为37 865.7万、10 327.3万t。【结论】我国农业碳排放量整体上呈现“上升—波动上升—波动下降”的趋势,经济发展水平较高地区的农业碳排放总量、强度下降速度均较大,农业碳排放的主要区域集中在中部和东部地区;农业产业结构、农业劳动力规模、农业能源结构对实现农业碳减排起到了积极作用,而农业能源效率、农业经济水平则在一定程度上推动了农业碳排放。

关键词: 农业碳排放, 演变特征, 影响因素

Abstract: 【Objective】To measure Chinese agricultural carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity,explore the time variation characteristics,analyze the driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions,in order to provide theoretical basis for achieving green,low-carbon and high-quality agricultural development.【Methods】Based on relevant data on agriculture and energy in 29 provinces（autonomous regions and centrally administered municipalities） from 2000 to 2020,combined with IPCC classical carbon emission measurement method,carbon emission measurement system was built around three aspects：agricultural land use,agricultural inputs and livestock and poultry breeding. The driving factors of agricultural carbon emissions were analyzed using the LMDI model.【Results】From 2000 to 2020,Chinese agricultural carbon emissions increased from 27.790 0 million t to 29.409 6 million t,while the agricultural carbon emission intensities decreased from 1.329 t/ten thousand yuan to 0.618 t/ten thousand yuan. From regional perspective,central and eastern were the main regions of Chinese agricultural carbon emissions. The contribution values of agricultural industrial structure,agricultural labor force size and agricultural energy structure to agricultural carbon emissions were -24.284 3 million t,-12.048 6 million t and -10.240 5 million t respectively. While the contribution values of agricultural energy efficiency and agricultural economic level were 37.865 7 million t and 10.327 3 million t respectively.【Conclusion】Chinese agricultural carbon emissions as a whole showed a trend of “rise-fluctuation rise-fluctuation drop”. The total and intensity of agricultural carbon emissions in regions with high levels of economic development had high reduction rate. The main regions of agricultural carbon emissions were concentrated in the central and eastern regions. Agricultural industrial structure,agricultural labor force size,and the agricultural energy structure played positive roles in achieving agricultural carbon emission reduction,while agricultural energy efficiency and agricultural economic level promoted agricultural carbon emissions to a certain extent.

Key words: Agricultural carbon emissions, Evolution characteristics, Influencing factor

中图分类号:

X322

徐浩, 虞昊. 农业碳排放的演变特征及影响因素分析[J]. 北方农业学报, 2023, 51(3): 91-103.

XU Hao, YU Hao. Analysis of the evolution characteristics and influencing factors of agricultural carbon emissions[J]. Journal of Northern Agriculture, 2023, 51(3): 91-103.

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