北方农业学报 ›› 2015, Vol. 43 ›› Issue (2): 63-63.

• 农业气象科学研究 • 上一篇    下一篇

乌海2012年6月27日强降水过程模式检验诊断分析

魏学军   

  1. 乌海市气象局,内蒙古乌海016000
  • 出版日期:2015-04-20 发布日期:2015-04-20
  • 通讯作者: 魏学军

Diagnostic analysis of Wuhai on 27 June 2012 heavy rainfall pattern test

WE1 Xuejun (Inner Mongolia Wuhai Meteorological Bureau,Wuhai O16000,China)   

  • Online:2015-04-20 Published:2015-04-20

摘要: 利用常规气象观测资料以及T639和EC数值模式资料对2012年6月27日乌海出现的大范围降雨过程进行模式检验诊断分析。结果表明:河套气旋在副高外围西南急流的引导下向东北方向移动,是造成此次降雨的直接影响系统,强降水出现在700h Pa低涡对称轴东侧,西南急流为降雨的发生提供了充沛的水汽和潜在的不稳定能量;对流层中低层涡度平流和温度平流的变化是影响低涡发展和移动的主要因子,来自黄河以南的丰沛水汽输送是最大降水出现的主要原因。EC和T639模式对此次降水预报结果基本一致,通过对乌海夏季中到大雨降水过程数值检验诊断分析,总结乌海天气预报局地强降水的有效方法和模式检验效果。

Abstract: Using conventional meteorological observations and numerical models of T639 and EC data,rainfall in large area occured on June 27,2012 in Wuhai for pattern test diagnostic was analyzed.The results showed that loop cyclone moved under the guidance of Vice-high perimeter southwest jet to the northeast,caused by the direct impact of rainfall systems, heavy rainfall occured in the eastern side of the symmetry axis of the vortex 700 h Pa,southwest jet provided for the occurrence of abundant rainfall water vapor and potentially unstable energy;changes in the lower troposphere vorticity advection and temperature advection is the main factor affecting the development and movement of the vortex,abundant moisture transport from the south of the Yellow River is the main reason for the maximum precipitation occurring.EC and T639 models of the precipitation forecast results were basically same.Through analysis of heavy rainfall of summer in Wuhai Numerical test diagnostic, it is summarized effective methods and models to examine the effect of Wuhai weather forecast heavy rainfall.

中图分类号: 

  • P458.121.1