山西省不同地区气候因子对大豆产量的影响

doi:10.12190/j.issn.2096-1197.2026.01.12

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 【目的】探索山西省不同气候区重要气候因子对大豆产量的影响,为保障大豆生产、优化大豆种植区划提供理论基础。【方法】选取山西省2005—2022年28个气象站点5—9月大豆不同生育阶段的气象数据（平均气温、日照时数、日降水量、平均相对湿度）和大豆单位面积产量,利用聚类分析划分山西省气候区,应用相关性分析、主成分分析、多元线性回归分析明确不同气候区气候因子对大豆单位面积产量的影响。【结果】通过聚类分析将山西省划分为A区、B区、C区3个气候区,分别包含13、14、1个气候站点。相关性分析结果表明,A区和B区各生育阶段、C区开花期—结荚期平均相对湿度,A区播种期—开花期平均气温与大豆单位面积产量显著相关（P<0.05）;C区播种期—开花期、开花期—结荚期日降水量与大豆单位面积产量正相关,且相关系数较大,但开花期—结荚期平均气温与大豆单位面积产量负相关。主成分分析结果表明,A区、B区、C区前5个主成分累计贡献率分别为78.353%、80.592%、83.431%,A区主导气候因子为各生育阶段的平均气温与平均相对湿度,其中平均气温具有正效应;B区主导气候因子为各生育阶段平均气温和开花期—结荚期、结荚期—成熟期平均相对湿度,其中平均气温具有负效应;C区主导气候因子为日降水量、日照时数、平均相对湿度、平均气温。多元线性回归分析表明,C区回归模型解释力（R²=0.786）显著高于A区（R²=0.281）和B区（R²=0.309）,不同气候区对大豆产量的影响为C区>B区>A区。【结论】在山西省的3个气候区中,A区的气候因子对大豆单位面积产量的影响最小,主要影响因素是播种期—开花期平均气温、开花期—结荚期平均相对湿度;B区的气候因子对大豆单位面积产量的影响中等,主要影响因素是播种期—开花期、结荚期—成熟期平均相对湿度,开花期—结荚期日照时数;C区的气候因子对大豆单位面积产量的影响最大,主要影响因素为开花期—结荚期平均相对湿度、播种期—开花期日降水量。

关键词: 山西省, 气候区, 气候因子, 大豆, 产量, 主成分分析, 多元线性回归分析

Abstract: 【Objective】 To investigate the effects of key climatic factors on Glycine max yield in different climatic regions of Shanxi Province,providing a theoretical basis for ensuring G. max production and optimizing G. max planting regionalization. 【Methods】 Meteorological data—including mean temperature,sunshine duration,daily precipitation,and mean relative humidity—during different growth stages of G. max from May to September at 28 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 2005 to 2022,along with G. max yield per unit area,were collected. Cluster analysis was used to classify the climatic regions of Shanxi. Correlation analysis,principal component analysis,and multiple linear regression analysis were applied to clarify the effects of climatic factors on G. max yield per unit area in different climatic regions. 【Results】 Shanxi Province was classified into three climatic regions （A,B,and C） by cluster analysis,containing 13,14,and 1 meteorological stations,respectively. Correlation analysis showed that all growth stages in regions A and B,and mean relative humidity from the flowering stage to the pod-setting stage in region C,as well as mean temperature from the sowing stage to the flowering stage in region A,were significantly correlated with G. max yield per unit area （P<0.05）. In region C,daily precipitation from the sowing stage to the flowering stage and from the flowering stage to the pod-setting stage was positively correlated with G. max yield per unit area,with relatively high correlation coefficients,while mean temperature from the flowering stage to the pod-setting stage was negatively correlated with G. max yield per unit area. Principal component analysis indicated that the cumulative contribution rates of the first five principal components were 78.353%,80.592%,and 83.431% in regions A,B,and C,respectively. The dominant climatic factors in region A were mean temperature and mean relative humidity during all growth stages,among which mean temperature had a positive effect;in region B,dominant climatic factors were mean temperature during all growth stages and mean relative humidity from the flowering stage to the pod-setting stage and from the pod-setting stage to the maturity stage,among which mean temperature had a negative effect;in region C,dominant climatic factors were daily precipitation,sunshine duration,relative humidity,and mean temperature. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that the explanatory power of the model for region C（R²=0.786） was significantly higher than that for region A（R²=0.281） and region B（R²=0.309）,and the effects of different climatic regions on G. max yield followed the order region C>region B>region A. 【Conclusion】 Among the three climatic regions of Shanxi Province,in region A,climatic factors had the least effect on G. max yield per unit area,with the main influencing factors being mean temperature from the sowing stage to the flowering stage and mean relative humidity from the flowering stage to the pod-setting stage;in region B,climatic factors had a moderate effect on G. max yield per unit area,with the main influencing factors being mean relative humidity from the sowing stage to the flowering stage and from the pod-setting stage to the maturity stage,and sunshine duration from the flowering stage to the pod-setting stage;in region C,climatic factors had the greatest effect on G. max yield per unit area,with the main influencing factors being mean relative humidity from the flowering stage to the pod-setting stage and daily precipitation from the sowing stage to the flowering stage.

Key words: Shanxi Province, Climatic region, Climatic factor, Glycine max, Yield, Principal component analysis, Multiple linear regression analysis

中图分类号:

S565.1

郭蕊, 王丹立, 赵睿智, 段娟, 刘正东, 郭敏. 山西省不同地区气候因子对大豆产量的影响[J]. 北方农业学报, 2026, 54(1): 121-134.

GUO Rui, WANG Danli, ZHAO Ruizhi, DUAN Juan, LIU Zhengdong, GUO Min. Effects of climatic factors on Glycine max yield in different regions of Shanxi Province[J]. Journal of Northern Agriculture, 2026, 54(1): 121-134.

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